Inventory Management in a Multinational Company

Inventory Management in a Multinational Company Inventory may be desirable, even necessary, for smooth operation and good customer service in many situations. For instance, inventory can be used to reduce the lead time to respond to customer demand, to smooth out the production rate when there are variations in demand, and to protect the company from underestimates of demand (forecast errors) or shortage of supply. Reasons such as these, plus the fact that inventory is considered an asset on a companys balance sheet, have led many companys to carry excessive amounts of inventory. Some companies for example, the Japanese manufacturer Toyota, have become known for their ability to operate with low inventories and to achieve a high inventory turnover. (Inventory turnover is basically the ratio of sales to the average inventory level, both measured at cost or retail price.) The Japanese approach is to keep in process inventory low and to achieve quick flow of the product through the production cycle. Being able to respond quickly to d emand, companies can work from a shorter range forecast, which is more accurate, so they need less safety stock to protect from uncertainty. [1] 2. Aims and objectives Inventory management is an important concern for managers in all types of businesses. For companies that operate on relatively low profit margins, poor inventory management can seriously undermine the business. The challenge is not to pare inventories to the bone to reduce costs or to have plenty around to satisfy all demands, but to have the right amount to achieve the competitive priorities for the business most efficiently. [2] Aims and objectives of this thesis are as follows: Deciding where to position inventory Determining when to replenish inventory Calculating how much to order Determining the placement of safety stock Refacilitating the use of business resources for profitable business results Ensuring the target level of inventory is available to support demand. 3. INVENTORY Inventory is defined as the stock of any item or resource used in organization [3]. An inventory system is a collection of people, equipment and procedures that function to keep account of the quantity of each item in inventory and to determine which items to buy or produce in what quantities and at what times. Even very simple method that accomplishes these functions cost money to operate. Some inventory system requires transaction reporting to keep track of every instance in which units are added to or taken from the existing inventory. This perpetual inventory records can be expensive, but the additional expense can be justified for products that are relatively expensive to hold in inventory 3. 1. CYCLE INVENTORY The portion of total inventory that varies directly with lot size, is called cycle inventory. Determining how frequently to order, and in what quantity, is called lot sizing, two principles apply. The lot size, Q, varies directly with the elapsed time (or cycle) between orders. If a lot is ordered every five weeks, the average lot size must equal five weeks demand. The longer the time between orders for a given item, the greater the cycle inventory. At the beginning of the interval, the cycle inventory is at its maximum or Q. at the end of the interval, just before a new lot arrives, cycle inventory drops to its minimum, or 0. the average cycle inventory is the average of these two extremes: Average cycle inventory = This formula is exact only when the demand rate is constant and uniform. However, it does provide a reasonably good estimate even when demand rates are not constant. Factors other than the demand rate also may cause estimating errors when this simple formula is used. 3.2. SAFETY STOCK INVENTORY To avoid customer service problems and the hidden costs of unavailable components, company holds safety stocks. Safety stocks inventory protects against uncertainties in demand, lead-time, and supply. Safety stocks are desirable when suppliers fail to deliver the desired quantity on the specified date with acceptable quality or when manufactured items have significant amounts of scrap or rework. Safety stock inventory ensures that operations are not disrupted when such problem occur, allowing subsequent operations to continue. Figure 1: Various types of Inventory To create safety stock, a farm places an order for delivery earlier than when the item is typically needed. The replenishment order therefore arrives ahead of time, giving a cushion against uncertainty. Inventory used to absorb uneven rates of demand or supply, which businesses often face, is referred to as anticipation inventory. Predictable, seasonal demand patterns lead themselves to the use of anticipation inventory. Anticipation inventory also can help when supply, rather than demand, is uneven. A company may stock up on a certain purchased item if its suppliers are threatened with a strike or have severe capacity limitations. 3.3. ANTICIPATION INVENTORY Inventory used to absorb uneven rates of demand or supply, which businesses often face, is referred to as anticipation inventory. Predictable, seasonal demand patterns lead themselves to the use of anticipation inventory. Anticipation inventory also can help when supply, rather than demand, is uneven. A company may stock up on a certain purchased item if its suppliers are threatened with a strike or have severe capacity limitations. 3.4. PIPELINE INVENTORY Inventory moving from point to point in the materials flow systems called pipeline inventory. Materials move from suppliers to a plant, from one operation to the next in the plant, from the plant to a distribution center for customer, and from the distribution center to a retailer. Pipeline inventory consists of orders that have been placed but not yet received. Pipeline inventory between two points, for either transportation or production, ca be measured as the average demand during lead time, , which is the average demand for the item period (d) times the number of periods in the items lead time (L) to move between the two points, or Pipeline Inventory = = dL. [2] 4. BATB Inventory Management There are some standard management theories as we described earlier in chapter two. The operational environment varies firms to firms, companies to companies. Based on the different varying conditions most companies do manage the inventory at their own. They do not follow exactly what the theory implies but analyzing the theories they go for the decisions that suit them most effectively and efficiently. The goal should not be to minimize inventory or to maximize customer service but rather to have the right amount to support the competitive priorities of the company. 4.1. BATB Inventory System BATB inventory system can be compared with a two-bin system in which an items inventory is stored at two different locations. Inventory is first withdrawn from one-bin. The two-bin system implies that if the first bin is empty, the second bin provides backup to cover demand until a reenlistment arrives [2]. BATB has the flexibility to locate their inventory at different points from supplier to warehouse at supplier premises which is very good advantage for a company. The demand manager and the MPS manager reviews the inventory positions on the daily basis and then go for receiving the lot from the pipeline inventory. This indicates that they are maintaining the pipeline inventory. It helps them reduce the lot size to be stocked at warehouse. BATB Inventory includes: Finished goods Bled sets Filter rods Wrapping materials Leaf Tax stamps Bandle rolls The study is mainly focused on the leaf. Because this is the major concern in any cigarette manufacturing company as it holds the maximum cycle time. We will work with the raw materials inventory. Mainly BATB has two types of materials. These are wrapping material and Tobacco. They receive raw materials from both local and foreign suppliers. Foreign suppliers are mainly from Brazil, Argentina, Canada, South Africa and Zimbabwe. For local suppliers average lead-time is 10 to 15 days and for the foreign suppliers lead-time is 90 to 120 days. Leaf is supplied by both the local and foreign supplier. But ignoring the local leaf as it takes less time, we will take the imported leaf in account to analyze. Leaf Strategy Leaf is an agricultural plant, which must be cultivated, and it needs certain period to get matured. Therefore the ordering policy of leaf is very time consuming. They have to place the order very early of the time it is needed to arrive. Suppose they need 1000-ton leaf in the month of April 2008, they inform their supplier right now that is in the month of April 2007, so that they can cultivate the leaf and then deliver. In addition, it is to be mentioned that just after the arrival in the warehouse the leaf is not as ready as to be used for production. It goes under another certain period of time for maturation and then is under for production. But if we talk about the lead-time it will include only the days between order placements to arrival at warehouse. 5. SAFETY STOCK Usually one does not know precisely the number of units that will be demanded each day during the lead-time. The duration of lead-time may have unexplained or unexpected variation. Demand can be thought of a probabilistic variable with some expected amount of demand during a period of time and unexplained variations about the expected value. If inventory could be replenished one a moments notice there would be no reason to be concerned about demand uncertainty. Whenever inventory reached zero, stock would be held again. With some lead time between the placement of an order an its arrival, however there is a chance that demand will be greater than expected and loss will be incurred due to stockout. When stockout costs are high and demand is very unpredictable, the financial risk is sizable. Safety stock is a means of protection against this risk. Safety stock (SS) is established simply by raising the reorder level above the expected lead-time demand. For probabilistic demand during le ad-time, the reorder level is given by the following equation where represents the mean demand per unit of time. [1] RL= ( ÃÆ'- LT) + SS Safety stock is the average amount one hand when replenishment orders arrive. Sometime demand during the lead-time is less than expected extra stock is on hand. Sometimes demand is greater than expected and some of the safety stock is used. 6. Methodology Step 1: Conducting a primary survey. Step 2: Preparing primary questionnaire Step 3: Modification of the questionnaire Open-ended questions: This type of questions found out the view of the decisions makers out for gathering information regarding the subject topic. Close-ended questions: These types of questions were designed to extract information which are related to the preparation of a realistic forecast: Step 4: Performing the case study and conducting the interview Step 5: Data processing and analysis 6.1 Demand Forecasting Strategy Demand manager receives the sales history of the previous 4/5 years. He observes the trend that every month undergoes. There are some seasonal impacts in the cigarette market. But overall the market is a stable one. Following the trend of previous 4/5 years and considering the marketing activities, the demand manager goes for a rolling forecast over the next 18 months. The term rolling here implies that the forecast is updated every month for the next 18 months. Stable Trend-up Trend-down Figure 2: Trends of Demand By this, the demand manager feels flexible enough to consider any new promotional activity or any assumption from the marketing department and any seasonal impact, which has not been included earlier. The main focus of forecasting is based on the trend. If the trend is decreasing the forecasted sales goes down and vice versa. 6.2. Findings Imported leaf stock: Year end 2008 imported leaf stock was 317 million Taka Average 2008 leaf stock was 334 million Taka (~ 4 months duration) Currently, they are following an inventory policy of maintaining a 90 day safety stock which varies in quantity and value terms over the year with fluctuation in demand. 7. ANALYSIS The assumptions presented in the chapter two have been considered applicable to develop the EOQ for the imported leaf. Considerations: Grade: AN30/104S Demand in Kg/Month: Annual Demand = 152000 Kg Holding Cost = 32 TK/ Kg Ordering Cost = 700 TK (Assumed) EOQ =à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã… ¡ (2DS/H) = à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã… ¡ ((2*152000*700)/32) =. 75Kgs Kgs 7.1 HOW MUCH TO ORDER The analysis shows that the company should order 2579 kg for the particular grade each time, a quality that should be result in 58.93 cycles per year. Actually, the equation derived doesnt result in actual lot size that must be ordered. This will help to manage lot size and inventory control. The current moves towards the inventory cost and quantities, stress the importance in reducing lot size. That means to reducing lot sizes is to reduce setup time and cost. When smaller lots are run, holding cost is reduced. The point is to understand the logic and where to apply it. The effect on order size resulting from reducing setup cost is shows in the following figure. When the setup cost is reduced, the total cost curve shifts from TC1 to TC2. Correspondingly, the EOQ is reduced from EOQ1 to EOQ2 and the maximum total cost is reduced from TC1min to TC2min.[3] Figure 6: Effect of reduced set up cost on order size and total cost 7.2. Reorder level The order quantity and reorder level are interrelated. A large order quantity causes fewer replenishment cycles with fewer exposures to stockout, so the reorder level can be reduced, and vice versa. Theoretically, we would have to find simultaneous solutions to equations for Q and RL to find their normal values. The value of D, S and H are only estimates, and the value of the EOQ will be approximate whether or not an adjustment is made for the expected stockout cost. Consequently, as often as done, we disregard the interrelationship between Q and RL. We solve for the EOQ, ignoring its effect on stockout cost, and then we find the best reorder level for this value of Q. Assumptions: Highest Service Level Factor corresponding to 99.99% satisfaction level used though recommended maximum level is usually 98%; this results in a more than 50% higher safety stock ii) Safety Stock calculated using standard deviation of actual demand rather than variance between forecast and actual giving higher levels of safety buffer. iii) Lead time taken to be 4 months for all grades whereas actual lead time is considerably less providing greater safety stock to cover variation in demand during lead time. Calculation: RL = L + z Where, RL =Reorder Point in Units, =Average Demand Per Time Period, L = Lead Time,Z = No. of Standard Deviation for a Specified Service Level,= Standard Deviation of Usages during Lead Time Annual Demand =152000 kgs Average Demand/Per Month =12666.66 L= 4 Months Z = 99.99% = à Ã†â€™d = à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã… ¡ (à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬Ëœ (di-dà ¢Ã‹â€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢) 2/12), in a range from i-1 to 12 =à ¢Ã‹â€ Ã… ¡ (31066666.66/12) =1609.00 Therefore, = =1609* =3218 From the above calculation RL can be determined as follows: RL = 12666.66 * 4 + 4*3218 =50666.64 + 12872 =63538.64 This says that when the stock on hand gets down to 60610.26 kgs order should be placed. 7.3. Level of Safety Stock Safety stock= =4*3218 =12872 It results to a safety stock of 31 days, as the daily demand is 416.43 kgs. But theoretically it is applicable for the particular grade. Though the other grades do not involve so much variation in their demand, considering some logistic capabilities for the overall improved leaf the proposed safety stock is 50 days. This will allow for flexibility during roll out of new safety stock polling while guarding against unanticipated changes in sales and supply scenarios. The reason for proposing this amount of safety stock is to protect much against the uncertainty of demand. Because there may be a situation that for a sudden change in demands the system may not be flexible enough to meet the change from the calculated safety stock. This is due to demand forecasting that takes place over a long period and the order is placed for a particular month very early of the situation it experiences the change in its demand. So immediately it is not possible for the system to respond the sudden change in demand. For this, proper level of safety stock should be placed in a company for its smooth operation. Another fact is that the lead time from order placement to arrival at warehouse involves some events over which the proper control is not possible. The following section represents the impact of reduction of safety stock and then the analysis of lead time is shown. It is to be mentioned that the more the lead times the more the level of safety stock. Therefor e the lead time calculation is an important factor for the placement of safety stock. 7.4. BENEFITS CALCULATION GRADE: AN30/104S Annual consumption = 152000kgs 90 days safety stock = 38000kgs 50 days safety stock = 21111.11 Therefore, WC Reduction = (38000-21111.11)*165 =2.78 million Taka 7.5. OFFSHORE STOCK COST CALCULATION Reduction in safety stock = 16888.89 kgs This amount of excess stock will be held at supplier premises for a maximum additional period of 12 months. Holding cost at BATB @ 12% = 16888.89ÃÆ'-135.11ÃÆ'-12% =273823 Taka Holding cost at supplier @ 7.2% + Excess Duty =16888.89 ÃÆ'- 135.11 ÃÆ'- 7.2% ÃÆ'- 1.22 =200439 Taka Therefore, Savings =73384 Taka 8. IMPACT OF REDUCED LEVEL OF SAFETY STOCK ON WC Proposed Safety Stock based on lead-time, variability in demand during 2006 and desired service level indicates a substantially lower requirement of safety stock even with very conservative assumptions Using 2007 volumes this would translate to reducing imported leaf stock from an average of 322.60 Million TK. to about 179.18 Million TK. Jan 08 Feb08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08 Jun 08 Aug08 9. LEAD TIME ANALYSIS It has been already mentioned that the more the lead time the more the safety stock. Lead time involves the total time from the order placement to arrival at warehouse Figure 7: Supply Lead Time We can develop a pie chart highlighting the time taken on a percentage basis by different events that take place from order placement to arrival at warehouse. Symbols Events Average % A TIME TAKEN BW ORD PLACE PRO INVOICE REC 14.75 7 B TIME TAKEN BW LC REQUIEST 10.93 5 C NO. OF DAYS SPENT B/W LC SHIPMENT DATE 38.90 19 D ARRIVAL IN CTG (ACTUAL SHIPMENT ETA CTG) 35.10 17 E DAYS REQD CTG TO ICD 6.05 3 F DAYS REQD ICD TO WAREHOUSE 8.58 4 Table 1: Lead Time Analysis The pie chart shows that a major part of the time from order placement to arrival at warehouse involves the events C and D over which the control cannot be held so easily. They involve some complex as well as time taking procedures. But in case of the rest of the events different action can be issued very effectively. Figure 8: Events placed on Warehouse (Percentage basis) In addition there are some recommendations for reducing the lead-time in the next chapter. 10. RECOMMENDATION As the analysis shows that the company can reduce the level of safety stock, the first phase of recommendation represents how it can be carried out and the later phase defines the steps, which should be proper monitored and controlled with a view to, maintain an optimized inventory management system. This will enable to obtain an effective safety stock level. Allowing Inventory Policy Exceptions for certain grades to satisfy requirements for blend changes and brain launches. Reviewing and improving the order tracking process as necessary. Monitoring orders, delivery performance and safety stock policy adhere continually. Gradually moving to safety stock of 2.5 months and then to 50 days, with 6 months duration difference. Holding the excess stock at the supplier premises. Locating the inventory at different points in the pipeline rather to hold much in the warehouses. The following steps should be performed in order to implement the recommend actions: Developing operational excellence in demand forecasting so that there will be fewer surprises. Cutting the lead-time to reduce the demand uncertainty during lead time. Reducing the supplier uncertainty. Supplier reliability can be increased by sharing the production plans with them, permitting them to make more realistic forecast. Improving the logistics capability by planning the infrastructure to meet demand, then implementing and controlling the physical flows of material and final goods from points of origin to points of use. 11. CONCLUSION It has been revealed that the traditional inventory management system needs some modification depending on the situation or the operating environment, while inventory is management by a company. The different inventory models provide a different set of capabilities and opportunities to exploit different competitive priorities. Some members of different industries and consulting firms have already started to criticize classical inventory models seem fashionable. But prior to the operating conditions different classical inventory models can be considered as the decision making tools that will enable a company to take its step under conflicting pressure. All the system needs is proper integration of operation and business. This will smooth the flow of information and thereby implementation of such models would be openhanded.

Forward the Foundation Chapter 22

Part IV Wanda Seldon SELDON, WANDA-†¦ In the waning years of Hari Seldon's life, he grew most attached to (some say dependent upon) his granddaughter, Wanda. Orphaned in her teens, Wanda Seldon devoted herself to her grandfather's Psychohistory Project, filling the vacancy left by Yugo Amaryl†¦ The content of Wanda Seldon's work remains largely a mystery, for it was conducted in virtually total isolation. The only individuals allowed access to Wanda Seldon's research were Hari himself and a young man named Stettin Palver (whose descendant Preem would four hundred years later contribute to the rebirth of Trantor, as the planet rose from the ashes of the Great Sack [300 F.E.1). Although the full extent of Wanda Seldon's contribution to the Foundation is unknown, it was undoubtedly of the greatest magnitude†¦ Encyclopedia Galactica 1 Hari Seldon walked into the Galactic Library (limping a little, as he did more and more often these days) and made for the banks of skitters, the little vehicles that slid their way along the interminable corridors of the building complex. He was held up, however, by the sight of three men seated at one of the galactography alcoves, with the Galactograph showing the Galaxy in full three-dimensional representation and, of course, its worlds slowly pinwheeling around its core, spinning at right angles to that as well. From where Seldon stood he could see that the border Province of Anacreon was marked off in glowing red. It skirted the edge of the Galaxy and took up a great volume, but it was sparsely populated with stars. Anacreon was not remarkable for either wealth or culture but was remarkable for its distance from Trantor: ten thousand parsecs away. Seldon acting on impulse, took a seat at a computer console near the three and set up a random search he was sure would take an indefinite period. Some instinct told him that such an intense interest in Anacreon must be political in nature-its position in the Galaxy made it one of the least secure holdings of the current Imperial regime. His eyes remained on his screen, but Seldon's ears were open for the discussion near him. One didn't usually hear political discussions in the Library. They were, in point of fact, not supposed to take place. Seldon did not know any of the three men. That was not entirely surprising. There were habitues of the Library, quite a few, and Seldon knew most of them by sight-and some even to talk to-but the Library was open to all citizens. No qualifications. Anyone could enter and use its facilities. (For a limited period of time, of course. Only a select few, like Seldon were allowed to â€Å"set up shop† in the Library. Seldon had been granted the use of a locked private office and complete access to Library resources.) One of the men (Seldon thought of him as Hook Nose, for obvious reasons) spoke in a low urgent voice. â€Å"Let it go,† he said. â€Å"Let it go. It's costing us a mint to try to hold on and, even if we do, it will only be while they're there. They can't stay there forever and, as soon as they leave, the situation will revert to what it was.† Seldon knew what they were talking about. The news had come over TrantorVision only three days ago that the Imperial government had decided on a show of force to bring the obstreperous Governor of Anacreon into line. Seldon's own psychohistorical analysis had shown him that it was a useless procedure, but the government did not generally listen when its emotions were stirred. Seldon smiled slightly and grimly at hearing Hook Nose say what he himself had said-and the young man said it without the benefit of any knowledge of psychohistory. Hook Nose went on. â€Å"If we leave Anacreon alone, what do we lose? It's still there, right where it always was, right at the edge of the Empire. It can't pick up and go to Andromeda, can it? So it still has to trade with us and life continues. What's the difference if they salute the Emperor or not? You'll never be able to tell the difference.† The second man, whom Seldon had labeled Baldy, for even more obvious reasons, said, â€Å"Except this whole business doesn't exist in a vacuum. If Anacreon goes, the other border provinces will go. The Empire will break up.† â€Å"So what?† whispered Hook Nose fiercely. â€Å"The Empire can't run itself effectively anymore, anyway. It's too big. Let the border go and take care of itself-if it can. The Inner Worlds will be all the stronger and better off. The border doesn't have to be ours politically; it will still be ours economically.† And now the third man (Red Cheeks) said, â€Å"I wish you were right, but that's not the way it's going to work. If the border provinces establish their independence, the first thing each will do will be to try to increase its power at the expense of its neighbors. There'll be war and conflict and every one of the governors will dream of becoming Emperor at last. It will be like the old days before the Kingdom of Trantor-a dark age that will last for thousands of years.† Baldy said, â€Å"Surely things won't be that bad. The Empire may break up, but it will heal itself quickly when people find out that the breakup just means war and impoverishment. They'll look back on the golden days of the intact Empire and all will be well again. We're not barbarians, you know. We'll find a way.† â€Å"Absolutely,† said Hook Nose. â€Å"We've got to remember that the Empire has faced crisis after crisis in its history and has pulled through time and again.† But Red Cheeks shook his head as he said, â€Å"This is not just another crisis. This is something much worse. The Empire has been deteriorating for generations. Ten years' worth of the junta destroyed the economy and since the fall of the junta and the rise of this new Emperor, the Empire has been so weak that the governors on the Periphery don't have to do anything. It's going to fall of its own weight.† â€Å"And the allegiance to the Emperor-† began Hook Nose. â€Å"What allegiance?† said Red Cheeks. â€Å"We went for years without an Emperor after Cleon was assassinated and no one seemed to mind much. And this new Emperor is just a figurehead. There's nothing he can do. There's nothing anyone can do. This isn't a crisis. This is the end. â€Å" The other two stared at Red Cheeks, frowning. Baldy said, â€Å"You really believe it! You think that the Imperial government will just sit there and let it all happen?† â€Å"Yes! Like you two, they won't believe it is happening. That is, until it's too late.† â€Å"What would you want them to do if they did believe it?† asked Baldy. Red Cheeks stared into the Galactograph, as if he might find an answer there. â€Å"I don't know. Look, in due course of time I'll die; things won't be too bad by then. Afterward, as the situation gets worse, other people can worry about it. I'll be gone. And so will the good old days. Maybe forever. I'm not the only one who thinks this, by the way. Ever hear of someone named Hari Seldon?† â€Å"Sure,† said Hook Nose at once. â€Å"Wasn't he First Minister under Cleon?† â€Å"Yes,† said Red Cheeks. â€Å"He's some sort of scientist. I heard him give a talk a few months back. It felt good to know I'm not the only one who believes the Empire is falling apart. He said-â€Å" â€Å"And he said everything's going to pot and there's going to be a permanent dark age?† Baldy interjected. â€Å"Well no,† said Red Cheeks. â€Å"He's one of these real cautious types. Ire says it might happen, but he's wrong. It will happen.† Seldon had heard enough. He limped toward the table where the three men sat and touched Red Cheeks on the shoulder. â€Å"Sir,† he said, â€Å"may I speak to you for a moment?† Startled, Red Cheeks looked up and then he said, â€Å"Hey, aren't you Professor Seldon?† â€Å"I always have been,† said Seldon. He handed the man a reference tile bearing his photograph. â€Å"I would like to see you here in my Library office at 4 P.M., day after tomorrow. Can you manage that?† â€Å"I have to work.† â€Å"Call in sick if you have to. It's important.† â€Å"Well, I'm not sure, sir.† â€Å"Do it,† said Seldon. â€Å"If you get into any sort of trouble over it, I'll straighten it out. And meanwhile, gentlemen, do you mind if I study the Galaxy simulation for a moment? It's been a long time since I've looked at one.† They nodded mutely, apparently abashed at being in the presence of a former First Minister. One by one the men stepped back and allowed Seldon access to the Galactograph controls. Seldon's finger reached out to the controls and the red that had marked off the Province of Anacreon vanished. The Galaxy was unmarked, a glowing pinwheel of mist brightening into the spherical glow at the center, behind which was the Galactic black hole. Individual stars could not be made out, of course, unless the view were magnified, but then only one portion or another of the Galaxy would be shown on the screen and Seldon wanted to see the whole thing -to get a look at the Empire that was vanishing. He pushed a contact and a series of yellow dots appeared on the Galactic image. They represented the habitable planets-twenty-five million of them. They could be distinguished as individual dots in the thin fog that represented the outskirts of the Galaxy, but they were more and more thickly placed as one moved in toward the center. There was a belt of what seemed solid yellow (but which would separate into individual dots under magnification) around the central glow. The central glow itself remained white and unmarked, of course. No habitable planets could exist in the midst of the turbulent energies of the core. Despite the great density of yellow, not one star in ten thousand, Seldon knew, had a habitable planet circling it. This was true, despite the planet-molding and terraforming capacities of humanity. Not all the molding in the Galaxy could make most of the worlds into anything a human being could walk on in comfort and without the protection of a spacesuit. Seldon closed another contact. The yellow dots disappeared, but one tiny region glowed blue: Trantor and the various worlds directly dependent on it. As close as it could be to the central core and yet remaining insulated from its deadliness, it was commonly viewed as being located at the â€Å"center of the Galaxy,† which it wasn't-not truly. As usual, one had to be impressed by the smallness of the world of Trantor, a tiny place in the vast realm of the Galaxy, but within it was squeezed the largest concentration of wealth, culture, and governmental authority that humanity had ever seen. And even that was doomed to destruction. It was almost as though the men could read his mind or perhaps they interpreted the sad expression on his face. Baldy asked softly, â€Å"Is the Empire really going to be destroyed?† Seldon replied, softer still, â€Å"It might. It might. Anything might happen.† He rose, smiled at the men, and left, but in his thoughts he screamed: It will! It will! 2 Seldon sighed as he climbed into one of the skitters that were ranked side by side in the large alcove. There had been a time, just a few years ago, when he had gloried in walking briskly along the interminable corridors of the Library, telling himself that even though he was past sixty he could manage it. But now, at seventy, his legs gave way all too quickly and he had to take a skitter. Younger men took them all the time because skitters saved them trouble, but Seldon did it because he had to-and that made all the difference. After Seldon punched in the destination, he closed a contact and the skitter lifted a fraction of an inch above the floor. Off it went at a rather casual pace, very smoothly, very silently, and Seldon leaned back and watched the corridor walls, the other skitters, the occasional walkers. He passed a number of Librarians and, even after all these years, he still smiled when he saw them. They were the oldest Guild in the Empire, the one with the most revered traditions, and they clung to ways that were more appropriate centuries before-maybe millennia before. Their garments were silky and off-white and were loose enough to be almost gownlike, coming together at the neck and billowing out from there. Trantor, like all the worlds, oscillated, where the males were concerned, between facial hair and smoothness. The people of Trantor itself-or at least most of its sectors-were smooth-shaven and had been smooth-shaven for as far back as he knew-excepting such anomalies as the mustaches worn by Dahlites, such as his own foster son, Raych. The Librarians, however, clung to the beards of long ago. Every Librarian had a rather short neatly cultivated beard running from ear to ear but leaving bare the upper lip. That alone was enough to mark them for what they were and to make the smooth-shaven Seldon feel a little uncomfortable when surrounded by a crowd of them. Actually the most characteristic thing of all was the cap each wore (perhaps even when asleep, Seldon thought). Square, it was made of a velvety material, in four parts that came together with a button at the top. The caps came in an endless variety of colors and apparently each color had significance. If you were familiar with Librarian lore, you could tell a particular Librarian's length of service, area of expertise, grades of accomplishment, and so on. They helped fix a pecking order. Every Librarian could, by a glance at another's hat, tell whether to be respectful (and to what degree) or overbearing (and to what degree). The Galactic Library was the largest single structure on Trantor (possibly in the Galaxy), much larger than even the Imperial Palace, and it had once gleamed and glittered, as though boasting of its size and magnificence. However, like the Empire itself, it had faded and withered. It was like an old dowager still wearing the jewels of her youth but upon a body that was wrinkled and wattled. The skitter stopped in front of the ornate doorway of the Chief Librarian's office and Seldon climbed out. Las Zenow smiled as he greeted Seldon. â€Å"Welcome, my friend,† he said in his high-pitched voice. (Seldon wondered if he had ever sung tenor in his younger days but had never dared to ask. The Chief Librarian was a compound of dignity always and the question might have seemed offensive.) â€Å"Greetings,† said Seldon. Zenow had a gray beard, rather more than halfway to white, and he wore a pure white hat. Seldon understood that without any explanation. It was a case of reverse ostentation. The total absence of color represented the highest peak of position. Zenow rubbed his hands with what seemed to be an inner glee. â€Å"I've called you in, Hari, because I've got good news for you. We've found it! â€Å"By ‘it,' Las, you mean-â€Å" â€Å"A suitable world. You wanted one far out. I think we've located the ideal one.† His smile broadened. â€Å"You just leave it to the Library. Hari. We can find anything.† â€Å"I have no doubt, Las. Tell me about this world.† â€Å"Well, let me show you its location first.† A section of the wall slid aside, the lights in the room dimmed, and the Galaxy appeared in three-dimensional form, turning slowly. Again, red lines marked off the Province of Anacreon, so that Seldon could almost swear that the episode with the three men had been a rehearsal for this. And then a brilliant blue dot appeared at the far end of the province. â€Å"There it is,† said Zenow. â€Å"It's an ideal world. Sizable, well-watered, good oxygen atmosphere, vegetation, of course. A great deal of sea life. It's there just for the taking. No planet-molding or terraforming required-or, at least, none that cannot be done while it is actually occupied.† Seldon said, â€Å"Is it an unoccupied world, Las?† â€Å"Absolutely unoccupied. No one on it.† â€Å"But why-if it's so suitable? I presume that, if you have all the details about it, it must have been explored. Why wasn't it colonized?† â€Å"It was explored, but only by unmanned probes. And there was no colonization-presumably because it was so far from everything. The planet revolves around a star that is farther from the central black hole than that of any inhabited planet-farther by far. Too far, I suppose, for prospective colonists, but I think not too far for you. You said, ‘The farther, the better.' â€Å" â€Å"Yes,† said Seldon, nodding. â€Å"I still say so. Does it have a name or is there just a letter-number combination?† â€Å"Believe it or not, it has a name. Those who sent out the probes named it Terminus, an archaic word meaning ‘the end of the line.' Which it would seem to be.† Seldon said, â€Å"Is the world part of the territory of the Province of Anacreon?† â€Å"Not really,† said Zenow. â€Å"If you'll study the red line and the red shading, you will see that the blue dot of Terminus lies slightly outside it-fifty light-years outside it, in fact. Terminus belongs to nobody; it's not even part of the Empire, as a matter of fact.† â€Å"You're right, then, Las. It does seem like the ideal world I've been looking for.† â€Å"Of course,† said Zenow thoughtfully, â€Å"once you occupy Terminus, I imagine the Governor of Anacreon will claim it as being under his jurisdiction.† â€Å"That's possible,† said Seldon, â€Å"but we'll have to deal with that when 1 he matter comes up.† Zenow rubbed his hands again. â€Å"What a glorious conception. Setting up a huge project on a brand-new world, far away and entirely isolated, so that year by year and decade by decade a huge Encyclopedia of all human knowledge can be put together. An epitome of what is present in this Library. If I were only younger, I would love to join the expedition.† Seldon said sadly, â€Å"You're almost twenty years younger than I am.† (Almost everyone is far younger than I am, he thought, even more sadly.) Zenow said, â€Å"Ah yes, I heard that you just passed your seventieth birthday. I hope you enjoyed it and celebrated appropriately.† Seldon stirred. â€Å"I don't celebrate my birthdays.† â€Å"Oh, but you did. I remember the famous story of your sixtieth birthday.† Seldon felt the pain, as deeply as though the dearest loss in all the world had taken place the day before. â€Å"Please don't talk about it,† he said. Abashed, Zenow said, â€Å"I'm sorry. We'll talk about something else. If, indeed, Terminus is the world you want, I imagine that your work on the preliminaries to the Encyclopedia Project will be redoubled. As you know, the Library will be glad to help you in all respects.† â€Å"I'm aware of it, Las, and I am endlessly grateful. We will, indeed, keep working.† He rose, not yet able to smile after the sharp pang induced by the reference to his birthday celebration of ten years back. He said, â€Å"So I must go to continue my labors.† And as he left, he felt, as always, a pang of conscience over the deceit he was practicing. Las Zenow did not have the slightest idea of Seldon's true intentions. 3 Hari Seldon surveyed the comfortable suite that had been his personal office at the Galactic Library these past few years. It, like the rest of the Library, had a vague air of decay about it, a kind of weariness-something that had been too long in one place. And yet Seldon knew it might remain here, in the same place, for centuries more-with judicious rebuildings-for millennia even. How did he come to be here? Over and over again, he felt the past in his mind, ran his mental tendrils along the line of development of his life. It was part of growing older, no doubt. There was so much more in the past, so much less in the future, that the mind turned away from the looming shadow ahead to contemplate the safety of what had gone before. In his case, though, there was that change. For over thirty years psychohistory had developed in what might almost be considered a straight line-progress creepingly slow but moving straight ahead. Then six years ago there had been a right-angled turn-totally unexpected. And Seldon know exactly how it had happened, how a concatenation of events came together to make it possible. It was Wanda, of course, Seldon's granddaughter. Hari closed his eyes and settled into his chair to review the events of six years before. Twelve-year-old Wanda was bereft. Her mother, Manella, had had another child, another little girl, Bellis, and for a time the new baby was a total preoccupation. Her father, Raych, having finished his book on his home sector of Dahl, found it to be a minor success and himself a minor celebrity. He was called upon to talk on the subject, something he accepted with alacrity, for he was fiercely absorbed in the subject and, as he said to Hari with a grin, â€Å"When I talk about Dahl, I don't have to hide my Dahlite accent. In fact, the public expects it of me.† The net result, though, was that he was away from home a considerable amount of time and when he wasn't, it was the baby he wanted to see. As for Dors-Dors was gone-and to Hari Seldon that wound was ever-fresh, ever-painful. And he had reacted to it in an unfortunate manner. It had been Wanda's dream that had set in motion the current of events that had ended with the loss of Dors. Wanda had had nothing to do with it-Seldon knew that very well. And yet he found himself shrinking from her, so that he also failed her in the crisis brought about by the birth of the new baby. And Wanda wandered disconsolately to the one person who always seemed glad to see her, the one person she could always count on. That WAS Yugo Amaryl, second only to Hari Seldon in the development of psychohistory and first in his absolute round-the-clock devotion to it. Hari had had Dors and Raych, but psychohistory was Yugo's life; he had no wife and children. Yet whenever Wanda came into his presence, something within him recognized her as a child and he dimly felt-for just that moment-a sense of loss that seemed to be assuaged only by showing the child affection. To be sure, he tended to treat her as a rather undersized adult, but Wanda seemed to like that. It was six years ago that she had wandered into Yugo's office. Yugo looked up at her with his owlish reconstituted eyes and, as usual, took a moment or two to recognize her. Then he said, â€Å"Why, it's my dear friend Wanda. But why do you look so sad? Surely an attractive young woman like you should never feel sad.† And Wanda, her lower lip trembling, said, â€Å"Nobody loves me.† â€Å"Oh come, that's not true.† â€Å"They just love that new baby. They don't care about me anymore.† â€Å"I love you, Wanda.† â€Å"Well, you're the only one then, Uncle Yugo.† And even though she could no longer crawl onto his lap as she had when she was younger, she cradled her head on his shoulder and wept. Amaryl, totally unaware of what he should do, could only hug the girl and say, â€Å"Don't cry. Don't cry.† And out of sheer sympathy and because he had so little in his own life to weep about, he found that tears were trickling down his own cheeks as well. And then he said with sudden energy, â€Å"Wanda, would you like to see something pretty?† â€Å"What?† sniffled Wanda. Amaryl knew only one thing in life and the Universe that was pretty. He said, â€Å"Did you ever see the Prime Radiant?† â€Å"No. What is it?† â€Å"It's what your grandfather and I use to do our work. See? It's right here.† He pointed to the black cube on his desk and Wanda looked at it woefully. â€Å"That's not pretty,† she said. â€Å"Not now,† agreed Amaryl. â€Å"But watch when I turn it on.† He did so. The room darkened and filled with dots of light and flashes of different colors. â€Å"See? Now we can magnify it so all the dots become mathematical symbols.† And so they did. There seemed a rush of material toward them and there, in the air, were signs of all sorts, letters, numbers, arrows, and shapes that Wanda had never seen before. â€Å"Isn't it pretty?† asked Amaryl. â€Å"Yes, it is,† said Wanda, staring carefully at the equations that (she didn't know) represented possible futures. â€Å"I don't like that part, though. I think it's wrong.† She pointed at a colorful equation to her left. â€Å"Wrong? Why do you say it's wrong† said Amaryl, frowning. â€Å"Because it's not†¦ pretty. I'd do it a different way.† Amaryl cleared his throat. â€Å"Well, I'll try to fix it up.† And he moved closer to the equation in question, staring at it in his owlish fashion. Wanda said, â€Å"Thank you very much, Uncle Yugo, for showing me your pretty lights. Maybe someday I'll understand what they mean.† â€Å"That's all right,† said Amaryl. â€Å"I hope you feel better.† â€Å"A little, thanks,† and, after flashing the briefest of smiles, she left the room. Amaryl stood there, feeling a trifle hurt. He didn't like having the Prime Radiant's product criticized-not even by a twelve-year-old girl who knew no better. And as he stood there, he had no idea whatsoever that the psychohistorical revolution had begun. 4 That afternoon Amaryl went to Hari Seldon's office at Streeling University. That in itself was unusual, for Amaryl virtually never left his own office, even to speak with a colleague just down the hall. â€Å"Hari,† said Amaryl, frowning and looking puzzled. â€Å"Something very odd has happened. Very peculiar.† Seldon looked at Amaryl with deepest sorrow. He was only fifty-three, but he looked much older, bent, worn down to almost transparency. When forced, he had undergone doctors' examinations and the doctors had all recommended that he leave his work for a period of time (some said permanently) and rest. Only this, the doctors said, might improve his health. Otherwise-Seldon shook his head. â€Å"Take him away from his work and he'll die all the sooner-and unhappier. We have no choice.† And then Seldon realized that, lost in such thoughts, he was not hearing Amaryl speak. He said, â€Å"I'm sorry, Yugo. I'm a little distracted. Begin again.† Amaryl said, â€Å"I'm telling you that something very odd has happened. Very peculiar.† â€Å"What is it, Yugo?† â€Å"It was Wanda. She came in to see me-very sad, very upset.† â€Å"Why?† â€Å"Apparently it's the new baby.† â€Å"Oh yes,† Hari said with more than a trace of guilt in his voice. â€Å"So she said and cried on my shoulder-I actually cried a bit, too, Hari. And then I thought I'd cheer her up by showing her the Prime Radiant.† Here Amaryl hesitated, as if choosing his next words carefully. â€Å"Go on, Yugo. What happened?† â€Å"Well, she stared at all the lights and I magnified a portion, actually Section 428254. You're acquainted with that?† Seldon smiled. â€Å"No, Yugo, I haven't memorized the equations quite as well as you have.† â€Å"Well, you should,† said Amaryl severely. â€Å"How can you do a good job if-But never mind that. What I'm trying to say is that Wanda pointed to a part of it and said it was no good. It wasn't pretty. â€Å" â€Å"Why not? We all have our personal likes and dislikes.† â€Å"Yes, of course, but I brooded about it and I spent some time going over it and, Hari, there was something wrong with it. The programming was inexact and that area, the precise area to which Wanda pointed, was no good. And, really, it wasn't pretty.† Seldon sat up rather stiffly, frowning. â€Å"Let me get this straight, Yugo. She pointed to something at random, said it was no good, and she was right?† â€Å"Yes. She pointed, but it wasn't at random; she was very deliberate.† â€Å"But that's impossible.† â€Å"But it happened. I was there.† â€Å"I'm not saying it didn't happen. I'm saying it was just a wild coincidence.† â€Å"Is it? Do you think, with all your knowledge of psychohistory, you could take one glance at a new set of equations and tell me that one portion is no good?† Seldon said, â€Å"Well then, Yugo, how did you come to expand that particular portion of the equations? What made you choose that piece for magnification?† Amaryl shrugged. â€Å"That was coincidence-if you like. I just fiddled with the controls.† â€Å"That couldn't be coincidence,† muttered Seldon. For a few moments he was lost in thought, then he asked the question that pushed forward the psychohistorical revolution that Wanda had begun. He said, â€Å"Yugo, did you have any suspicions about those equations beforehand? Did you have any reason to believe there was something wrong with them?† Amaryl fiddled with the sash of his unisuit and seemed embarrassed. â€Å"Yes, I think I did. You see-â€Å" â€Å"You think you did?† â€Å"I know I did. I seemed to recall when I was setting it up-it's a new section, you know-my fingers seemed to glitch on the programmer. It looked all right then, but I guess I kept worrying about it inside. I remember thinking it looked wrong, but I had other things to do and I just let it go. But then when Wanda happened to point to precisely the area I had been concerned about, I decided to check up on her-otherwise I would just have let it go as a childish statement.† â€Å"And you turned on that very fragment of the equations to show Wanda. As though it were haunting your unconscious mind.† Amaryl shrugged. â€Å"Who knows?† â€Å"And just before that, you were very close together, hugging, both crying.† Amaryl shrugged again, looking even more embarrassed. Seldon said, â€Å"I think I know what happened, Yugo. Wanda read your mind.† Amaryl jumped, as though he had been bitten. â€Å"That's impossible!† Slowly Seldon said, â€Å"I once knew someone who had unusual mental powers of that sort†-and he thought sadly of Eto Demerzel or, as Seldon had secretly known him, Daneel-â€Å"only he was somewhat more than human. But his ability to read minds, to sense other people's thoughts, to persuade people to act in a certain way-that was a mental ability. I think, somehow, that perhaps Wanda has that ability as well.† â€Å"I can't believe it,† said Amaryl stubbornly. â€Å"I can,† said Seldon â€Å"but I don't know what to do about it.† Dimly lie felt the rumblings of a revolution in psychohistorical research-but only dimly.

Online Transactions Are Better Than Conventional Manual

Online transactions are better than the conventional manual transactions Online transaction or online banking, which is a process of entering into transactions by a particular client and the bank using modern technology. Nowadays, with modern technology such as computer and mobile phone, people can do the online transaction at anytime and from anywhere. However, do we really know whether online transaction is beneficial? Even though most people think that online transaction is more risky than manual transaction.I strongly agree that online transactions are better than the conventional manual transactions. This is because online transactions are very convenient, and it is also unlimited service day and night. Online transactions are very convenient to all. Online banking is a easy process. You can do any transaction that you wish to do with the banks or clients, no matter you are in office or home. Besides that, online transaction can be a easy way to us to make bill payment. Through this system, you can pay the bills by transfer funds between accounts.Therefore, you do not have to queue up to pay your bills. This also can help you to save more time to do other things. The system also will keep the transaction records so that you can easily refer your transaction. This also can help in reduce the use of paper. Thus, online transactions are quite convenient to all. Another reason why online transactions are better than conventional manual transactions are because online transaction system is unlimited service day and night, it is operates 24 hours per day.The online transactions are always available seven days a week, 24 hours daily and 365 days a year. Every transactions can be done by using your computer or mobile phone and internet connection. In addition, online transactions do not have time constraint. Online transactions unlike the manual transactions, which are you need to do transactions during the office hours. With online transactions, we do not need to run off from our works to go the bank. As mentioned before, online transactions are available all the time can help you to cut off the time to go to banks.Nevertheless, some people think that manual transactions can avoid system trouble. This is because online transaction is relies on internet connection. Without internet connection, you cannot access to do online transactions. Due to slow internet connectivity, this can creates a problem that whether your transaction was successful or not. However, I strongly disagree with all these views. I think bank have precautions to help their customers to solve this kind of problems due to the internet connection or server down. For instance, 24 hours customer service hotline.Assistance is provided by bank to those customer who have facing problems during online transactions. In conclusion, online transactions are better than the conventional manual transactions because online transactions are very convenient and unlimited service day and n ight. Therefore, we should not have all negative views towards online transactions as online transactions are very useful and convenient to all especially businessmen and businesswomen. Having presented by my arguments, I once again totally agree on the statement that â€Å" Online transactions are better than the conventional manual transactions. †

A Narrative Film Mise En Scene, Cinematography, Acting,...

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